Depending on the result of Andy Murray’s match with Fernando Verdasco earlier in the day, this match could either decide the fate of the entire group or effectively be a dead rubber.
If Murray wins in straight sets then everything is sorted. Federer and Murray are through and Del Potro is out. Federer would merely be looking to ensure he wins the group. However if Murray drops a set or loses then there are all possible connotations.
Federer has been playing in the Masters Cup for many years now and he’s well aware of how complicated it can become.
“I remember matches like (Albert] Costa against (Carlos] Moya in Shanghai 2002, they could have knocked out (Lleyton] Hewitt if Costa had won. Moya ended up winning in three, Hewitt came through, ended up winning the tournament,” Federer said. “That's why, no matter if you play first or second, you play as good as you can, and then you see if you're through or not. The only advantage or disadvantage I have right now is that I guess I'll know if I'm through or not before my match."
Federer and Del Potro have played four times this year with Federer leading the head-to-head 6-1. The first two encounters were fairly routine. Federer crushed the Argentine 6-3, 6-0, 6-0 in Melbourne and then breezed past him 6-3, 6-4 in the Madrid Masters.
However the last two have been absolute classics and up there with the best matches all year. Their semi-final in the French Open will probably go down as one of the most defining matches in Federer’s career. Knowing it was his best chance to win that much sought after Roland Garros crown, the Swiss was riddled was nerves and up against a fearless, on-form Del Potro. The Argentine led two sets to one and nearly spoiled the party but Federer fought back.
It was a reversal of fortunes three months later in New York. Federer was two sets to one up and looked to have the match done and dusted but Del Potro found a second wind of irresistible tennis to claim his first slam.
Looking ahead to this one, Federer hit a hot streak against Andy Murray and was playing some quite beautiful all-court tennis. Del Potro is dangerous when he’s serving well but he’s blown hot and cold all week and probably lacks the consistency to make it really close.
Source: Bettingpro.com
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